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National Security Commission on AI: Final Report and Roadmap for U.S. AI Leadership

This brief summarises the key findings and recommendations of the 2021 National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence’s final report, which warns that the United States is not AI‑ready and must invest billions, develop leadership structures and build talent to compete with China while adopting AI responsibly.

Zeph Tech Research Lead

Research lead, Zeph Tech

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Context. In March 2021 the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) delivered its final report to the U.S. Congress. The commission, established by the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act and chaired by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, spent two years evaluating how AI will reshape national security. The report warns that the United States is not “AI‑ready” and must inject billions of dollars into AI research, expand the talent pipeline, and create new leadership structures to compete with China and other technology powers【17549991698012†L77-L104】. Commissioners argue that AI will be a foundation of the innovation economy and a source of geopolitical power, but that the United States remains unprepared for the coming era【57617169888452†L30-L44】.

Why AI matters for national security. The NSCAI report opens with a stark assessment: artificial intelligence is a “general‑purpose technology” that will underpin future innovation and will be employed by nation‑states to pursue strategic ambitions【57617169888452†L30-L35】. The commission notes that Americans have not seriously grappled with how profoundly the AI revolution will impact society, the economy and national security【57617169888452†L37-L44】. AI’s rapid progress will accelerate competition between governments and companies and raise the stakes in defending against cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns and other AI‑enabled threats【57617169888452†L48-L56】. The commission warns that China possesses the talent and ambition to challenge U.S. technological leadership【57617169888452†L51-L55】, and that without action the United States could lose its leadership position within a decade【57617169888452†L70-L75】.

Two overarching themes. The report is organized into two broad parts—“Defending America in the AI Era” and “Winning the Technology Competition.” Part I outlines how the government can defend against AI‑enabled threats while responsibly using AI to protect the American people【57617169888452†L80-L90】. Part II focuses on winning the broader technology competition, recommending actions to promote AI innovation and protect U.S. advantages【57617169888452†L96-L101】. The report stresses that success in both areas will require coordinated efforts across government, industry and academia.

Major recommendations. The commission’s recommendations encompass leadership, talent, hardware and research investment:

  • Massive investment in AI research. The report calls for injecting billions of dollars into AI research and development. Eric Schmidt told reporters that to be “AI‑ready” by 2025 the U.S. government should increase annual AI R&D spending to $32 billion by 2026【17549991698012†L77-L125】. Without such investment, the commission warns, the United States will fall behind in the race for AI supremacy.
  • Leadership and governance structures. Commissioners recommend establishing a Technology Competitiveness Council within the White House, chaired by the Vice President and including cabinet secretaries, to develop and oversee a national AI strategy【17549991698012†L106-L121】. This council would coordinate federal efforts much like the National Security Council did during the Cold War【17549991698012†L110-L117】.
  • Building an AI talent pipeline. The report highlights a “huge talent deficit” in government and urges the creation of new education and training programs to build and retain AI expertise【17549991698012†L145-L157】. Commissioners stress that the United States must attract and nurture homegrown talent while welcoming global talent to maintain its competitive edge.
  • Securing semiconductor supply chains. Because AI relies on advanced hardware, the commission emphasizes revitalizing domestic semiconductor manufacturing to stay two generations ahead of competitors【17549991698012†L155-L166】. Reliance on overseas fabrication, particularly in Taiwan, is identified as a strategic vulnerability【17549991698012†L159-L163】.
  • Responsible adoption of AI by government agencies. The report urges federal agencies to adopt AI technologies responsibly, ensuring they are used ethically and effectively to defend against threats【17549991698012†L95-L100】. This includes investing in testing, evaluation and validation of AI systems and establishing clear accountability frameworks.

Strategic competition with China. A key theme throughout the report is competition with China. The commission describes China as the only other country with the “might, talent and ambition” to challenge U.S. technological leadership【57617169888452†L51-L55】. Commissioners warn that AI will play a central role in China’s strategies for economic dominance and military modernization. The report suggests that China’s rapid investments in AI, combined with centralized strategic direction, could enable it to surpass the United States if the U.S. government does not respond decisively【57617169888452†L70-L75】.

Implications for defense and security. The report’s defense‑oriented recommendations include:

  • Integrating AI into defense systems. The Department of Defense (DoD) and intelligence community must accelerate adoption of AI to maintain military superiority. This includes autonomous systems, intelligence analysis, logistics and cyber operations. At the same time, agencies must develop robust testing and evaluation procedures to ensure AI is reliable and aligns with ethical norms.
  • Protecting against AI‑enabled threats. The commission warns that adversaries will use AI to conduct cyber attacks, surveillance, disinformation campaigns and autonomous weapons. The United States must develop capabilities to detect and defend against these threats and to protect critical infrastructure【57617169888452†L48-L56】.
  • International cooperation and alliances. To counter common threats, the report encourages building coalitions with allies that share democratic values and establishing norms and standards for responsible AI use. Cooperation on research, standards and supply chains is seen as essential to maintaining a strategic advantage.

Broader policy recommendations. Beyond national security, the commission advocates for a holistic approach to AI governance:

  • Ethical and human‑centric AI. The report acknowledges that AI must align with democratic values and civil rights. It recommends adopting ethical frameworks—such as the White House’s Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights—to ensure AI systems protect privacy, avoid discrimination and provide transparency and recourse for affected individuals.
  • Education and workforce development. The commission calls for major investments in STEM education at all levels and for creating pathways to AI careers for diverse populations. It stresses that fostering a diverse and inclusive workforce is essential to addressing biases and ensuring equitable AI innovation.
  • Public–private partnerships. Recognizing the critical role of industry, the report urges deeper collaboration between government and the private sector. This includes sharing research, co‑investing in infrastructure, and aligning regulatory and innovation goals.
  • Long‑term research and innovation. The commission emphasises that AI progress is not a one‑time sprint but a sustained race. It calls for long‑term funding mechanisms, flexible research programs, and incentives for foundational AI research to maintain technological leadership.

Significance and reactions. The NSCAI report is one of the most comprehensive assessments of AI’s implications for national security. Its recommendations—ranging from spending billions on R&D to creating new governance structures—reflect the scale of the challenges ahead. Commentators note that the report underscores the urgency of investment and coordination; without decisive action, the United States risks ceding its technological advantage to adversaries. At the same time, the report’s emphasis on ethics and human‑centric AI demonstrates an awareness that national security strategies must balance innovation with values and rights.

Conclusion. The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence’s final report presents a clear message: AI will shape the geopolitical landscape, and the United States must act decisively to harness its benefits while mitigating its risks. By investing in research, building talent, securing supply chains, strengthening governance and cooperating internationally, the U.S. can remain competitive and safeguard its national security. The report serves as a roadmap for policymakers, industry leaders and educators to prepare for an AI‑enabled future.

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