DOE Finalizes 2023 National Transmission Needs Study

Executive briefing: On October 30, 2023 the U.S. Department of Energy released the final National Transmission Needs Study, providing a quantitative baseline for where the U.S. grid lacks transfer capacity. DOE concluded that bulk transmission capacity must expand by 64% by 2035—and potentially double in high-load scenarios—to meet reliability mandates and policy targets.

Key policy signals

Regional hotspots. The study highlights severe capacity gaps between the Midwest and East Coast, across ERCOT’s interfaces, and in the West where load growth and renewable additions outpace current infrastructure.
Scenario analytics. DOE modelled multiple load and generation cases showing that proactive transmission can avoid $20–50 billion in annual congestion and reliability costs.
Permitting alignment. The report directs federal agencies to prioritize permitting resources on corridors identified as high-need under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

Control alignment

Capital planning. Align long-term capital allocation with the study’s priority corridors when assessing where to locate energy-intensive facilities.
Reliability compliance. Integrate the study’s transfer capability gaps into NERC TPL and resource adequacy stress testing.
Stakeholder strategy. Prepare to engage in DOE’s follow-on corridor designations and Transmission Facilitation Program offerings.

Action checklist

Digest the study’s regional findings and brief executive teams on congestion exposure for current sites.
Coordinate with transmission developers pursuing high-need corridors to secure delivery rights or capacity reservations.
Update integrated resource plans and resilience narratives with DOE’s quantitative congestion and reliability estimates.

Sources

Zeph Tech translates the study’s congestion data into actionable siting and procurement strategies for critical infrastructure programs.