Infrastructure Briefing — January 9, 2026
ENTSO-E’s 2024 Mid-term Adequacy Forecast flags 2025–2026 tight margins without timely flexible capacity; operators need demand response, interconnector availability, and outage discipline.
Executive briefing: The ENTSO-E Mid-term Adequacy Forecast (MAF) 2024 shows that several Member States face elevated loss-of-load expectations across 2025–2026 if flexible capacity and interconnector availability lag schedule. Delays in new gas peakers, storage projects, and grid reinforcement, paired with volatile hydrology, constrain system operators’ ability to cover peak demand under severe weather scenarios. The MAF stresses disciplined outage planning, demand response procurement, and cross-border coordination to keep margins within acceptable thresholds.
System operator actions
- Demand response blocks. Expand fast-acting demand response portfolios that can be dispatched within 15 minutes, targeting industrial loads and large commercial buildings ahead of 2025/26 winter.
- Interconnector readiness. Validate that HVDC links and phase-shifting transformers scheduled for maintenance do not overlap with peak-risk weeks, and rehearse remedial action schemes for key cross-border ties.
- Storage prioritization. Coordinate with battery operators to reserve state-of-charge for evening ramps and to provide synthetic inertia during low-inertia conditions.
Market coordination
- Capacity mechanism updates. Feed updated MAF assumptions into capacity auction parameters and reliability options so cleared resources are deliverable during system stress events.
- Hydro and wind sensitivity. Model adverse hydrology and wind drought scenarios jointly with fuel price sensitivity to set conservative reserve requirements and scarcity pricing triggers.
- Communication drills. Test emergency procedures with neighboring TSOs and distribution operators, ensuring public communication templates are ready for demand curtailment calls.
Evidence for regulators
- Document updated adequacy assessments, contingency plans for generation delays, and criteria for activating demand response and strategic reserves.
- Track delivery milestones for storage, peakers, and interconnector refurbishments, and present variances with mitigation steps during 2025 supervisory reviews.
- Align national resource adequacy studies with the MAF to avoid conflicting assumptions in market and security-of-supply filings.
Sources
Zeph Tech pairs ENTSO-E adequacy scenarios with operational drills, interconnector schedules, and demand response contracting guidance for grid operators and market participants.