• NERC’s base case shows sufficient generation for winter peak demand, yet its “Extreme Winter” scenario flags MISO, SPP, NPCC New England and Maritimes, SERC Central, the WECC Southwest, and ERCOT as areas where widespread cold-driven outages and transmission constraints could trigger Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) Level 3 load shed. The assessment ties the elevated risk to higher gas-fired dependence, wind output uncertainty, and limited import capability.
• The report details natural gas and fuel logistics hazards: wellhead freeze-offs in the Permian and Bakken, constrained Northeast pipeline capacity, weather-delayed LNG deliveries for ISO-NE, and coal or oil inventory shortfalls if rail and trucking are disrupted. NERC instructs balancing authorities to confirm firm fuel contracts, on-site liquid fuel readiness, and generator cold-weather packages ahead of December.
• NERC directs reliability coordinators to exercise EOP-011 load management procedures, verify blackstart availability, and rehearse manual load shed blocks should an Arctic outbreak derail generation availability. It also urges joint drills with pipeline operators to align gas nominations with forecasted electric load.
• The assessment underscores that critical substations, gas compressor stations, and control centers must maintain CIP-014 physical security plans because intentional damage during stressed conditions would exacerbate restoration timelines.

Source extracts — FERC 2024–2025 Winter Energy Market and Reliability Assessment (November 2024)

• FERC reports that base-case generation and gas storage inventories appear adequate, but an Extreme Cold scenario spanning the Midwest and Northeast would spike natural gas prices, congest pipelines feeding PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE, and risk curtailments to power generators absent prearranged firm transport or LNG berthing windows.
• The assessment highlights continued record LNG export commitments, growing residential heating demand, and gas-fired generation reliance that can leave southern Plains and Texas operators vulnerable to simultaneous electric and gas shortfalls. FERC cautions that dual-fuel units must secure oil deliveries and winterize transfer systems to maintain capacity accreditation.
• FERC directs system operators to expand conservative operations ahead of forecast polar air, issue timely EEA notifications, and stage demand response, voltage reductions, and public appeals consistent with EOP-011. It stresses rapid unit restoration, telemetry validation, and emergency communication drills to shorten recovery windows.
• The assessment advises coordinating with law enforcement on CIP-014 critical site protections, particularly around substations, LNG terminals, and compressor stations whose loss would magnify scarcity pricing and restoration complexity.